Possible scenario
Snapback Sanctions Return
20% Chance
If Iran’s offer is judged tactical or incomplete, the EU3 proceed with reimposed nuclear sanctions. This would raise oil-market and shipping-risk premia, though enforcement would still depend on U.S., European, Chinese, and Gulf state behavior.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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