Possible scenario
Phased Inspection Deal
40% Chance
Iran, the IAEA, the EU3, and the United States reach a narrow sequencing arrangement: inspectors get controlled access to bombed sites, while Europe pauses the harshest sanctions steps. This is the most likely path because Tehran needs economic relief but is unlikely to offer full transparency without staged concessions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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