Possible scenario
Negotiations Stall
30% Chance
The offer becomes another bargaining step rather than a breakthrough. Iran insists sanctions relief must precede full access, while the United States and EU3 demand verification of uranium inventories first.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
- Industrials -0.1%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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