Possible scenario
Rally Extends
42% Chance
The most likely near-term path is follow-through buying after the Dow's 530-point rally, supported by stronger earnings breadth and reduced fear of an imminent Fed move. Industrials, financials, and select software shares outperform as investors rotate back into cyclical risk.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.2%
- Finance +1.0%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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