Orderly Hawkish Baseline

The FOMC raises rates at the October meeting and Mary Daly's comments are interpreted as consistent with a higher-for-longer stance, not an abrupt policy shift. Markets price a meaningful chance of another hike in December or early 2027, but the move is largely anticipated after the recent inflation and expectations data.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.