Possible scenario
More Hawkish Path
25% Chance
Daly's comments are followed by similar guidance from other Fed officials, making a second post-October hike appear increasingly likely. This would be a material but still routine macro adjustment rather than a crisis, with rates and the dollar moving higher and risk assets under pressure.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.9%
- Utilities -1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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