Possible scenario
Data Cools Path
20% Chance
Incoming labor or inflation data after Daly's remarks undercut the case for multiple additional hikes. The FOMC still may hike in October, but markets reduce expectations for follow-on moves as investors conclude the tightening cycle is near its end.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Bitcoin Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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