Possible scenario
TTP Retaliation Inside Pakistan
18% Chance
Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan uses the border clashes to justify renewed attacks inside Pakistan, especially in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. This path is plausible because the original escalation cycle since 2022 has centered on Pakistan accusing Afghan Taliban authorities of sheltering TTP militants.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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