Managed Border Escalation

Pakistan and Taliban units continue intermittent artillery, mortar, and small-arms exchanges along the Durand Line, but both sides avoid a deeper campaign. This is the most likely path because Islamabad has already demonstrated willingness to strike Afghan territory, while Kabul has limited capacity and incentive to escalate into a sustained conventional fight.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.