Possible scenario
Expanded Pakistani Campaign
28% Chance
Pakistan concludes that Taliban authorities are either unable or unwilling to restrain Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan networks operating from Afghan territory. Islamabad expands cross-border airstrikes or conducts limited raids, raising the risk of Afghan retaliation without necessarily producing a full-scale war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.