Possible scenario
Phased US Rapprochement
45% Chance
The meeting produces a pragmatic bargain: Rodríguez keeps power with U.S. recognition while offering oil, migration, and political-prisoner concessions. Washington moves gradually to avoid appearing to reward authoritarian continuity while still stabilizing Venezuela after Maduro’s capture.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.8%
- Finance +0.3%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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