Possible scenario
Rapid De-Escalation
15% Chance
Pressure from Washington, Beijing, and the United Nations Command helps contain the episode quickly. Both Koreas keep harsh rhetoric but avoid new kinetic action, reducing immediate risk premiums in Korea-linked assets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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