Possible scenario
Localized DMZ Clash
30% Chance
North Korean front-line units respond with limited fire or a short-range provocation near the DMZ, drawing a calibrated South Korean military response. The incident remains geographically contained but raises the risk of accidental escalation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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