Possible scenario
Contained Military Signaling
45% Chance
North Korea amplifies threats, moves troops visibly near the DMZ, and conducts controlled demonstrations without crossing into a sustained firefight. Seoul maintains expanded patrols and warning-fire protocols, while the United Nations Command monitors the Military Demarcation Line.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.7%
- Industrials +0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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