Possible scenario
Courts Narrow Cases
42% Chance
The most likely path is a slow, case-by-case litigation track in which DOJ must prove that alleged fraud or concealment was material to naturalization. Federal courts allow some cases to proceed but resist a broad rule that would make naturalized citizenship easily revocable.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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