Possible scenario
Program Reworked Administratively
25% Chance
The Trump administration modifies the voter-roll initiative to reduce legal exposure, shifting from bulk access to state-led reviews and case-by-case referrals. This would let the White House claim continued enforcement while limiting immediate contempt or injunction risk.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.