Possible scenario
Limited US Strikes
42% Chance
The most likely escalation path is a bounded US air and missile campaign against nuclear, missile and IRGC infrastructure. Washington has already signaled operational preparation, while Tehran may calculate that a limited retaliation avoids regime-threatening escalation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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