Possible scenario
Interim Nuclear Deal
25% Chance
A coercive diplomacy outcome remains plausible because both sides have incentives to claim victory without entering a costly regional war. Tehran could accept a short freeze, monitored storage or expanded IAEA access in exchange for limited sanctions relief and a pause in US military action.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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