Possible scenario
Regional Posture Shift
15% Chance
The United States keeps counterterrorism and intelligence capabilities in the region while ending its permanent Iraq basing footprint. This limits the strategic loss from leaving Iraq and reduces the chance that the base closure alone becomes a market-moving shock.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Energy +0.2%
Tickers
- VVX+0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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