Possible scenario
Orderly Iraqi Transition
50% Chance
The withdrawal proceeds largely as planned under the 2024 US-Iraq agreement, with Iraqi Security Forces taking over remaining facilities and Washington shifting to diplomatic and intelligence channels. This is the base case because the exit was negotiated, phased, and already operationally complete before the headline.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.1%
Tickers
- VVX-0.4%
- -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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