Possible scenario
Militia Influence Rises
20% Chance
Iran-aligned Iraqi factions use the US departure to increase influence around former coalition sites and press Baghdad to limit future US military cooperation. This creates political and security uncertainty, but not necessarily a direct threat to oil production or regional shipping.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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