Possible scenario
Formal Federal Guardrails
20% Chance
The administration converts Bessent's public warning into formal oversight of AI data-center buildouts, power use and financing. This would be a more negative policy signal for the AI infrastructure trade, though still short of a crisis or outright cap on AI investment.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -3.2%
- Utilities -0.8%
- Finance -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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