Possible scenario
Capex Pause
27% Chance
Bessent's comments trigger a near-term reassessment of AI infrastructure spending, especially projects dependent on vendor financing and aggressive power assumptions. The market prices a pause in the most speculative parts of the AI capex cycle rather than a collapse.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.3%
- Industrials -0.7%
- Finance -0.3%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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