Possible scenario
Narrow Compromise
23% Chance
Congress and the administration settle on a limited waiver rather than a full prohibition. This preserves some diesel relief while adding reporting, volume caps, and sanctions language aimed at Moscow.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
- JBHT+0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.