Possible scenario
Congress Blocks Deal
27% Chance
A bipartisan coalition frames the arrangement as a sanctions loophole and moves faster than expected. The White House either suspends the license to avoid a larger confrontation or faces a serious veto-override threat.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.4%
- Industrials -1.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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