Possible scenario
Turkey Keeps Case
27% Chance
Turkey treats the arrest as part of its own financial-crimes campaign rather than mainly as a U.S. extradition matter. The recent liquidation of 130 funds and seizure of Halk TV make a domestic asset-forfeiture path plausible.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Business Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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