Possible scenario
Extradition Case Advances
38% Chance
Turkish authorities coordinate with U.S. officials after the arrest, tying the case to the SEC's existing claims over HEX, PulseChain, and PulseX. This is the most likely path because the 2023 SEC lawsuit gives prosecutors a clear framework for asset-freeze and extradition cooperation.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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