Possible scenario
US Military Response
25% Chance
Washington shifts from escorting ships to active suppression of Iranian launch sites, drones or fast boats. Tehran tries to answer without provoking full-scale war, leaving markets focused on whether the exchange stays geographically contained.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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