Possible scenario
Negotiated Shipping Pause
20% Chance
Oman, Qatar and European intermediaries use the seventh strike to press for a limited maritime stand-down. Iran does not abandon leverage over Hormuz, but it accepts a temporary inspection or notification mechanism that lowers near-term attack risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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