Possible scenario
Russian Retaliation Intensifies
21% Chance
Moscow answers the German pledge with renewed missile strikes, information operations, or pressure near NATO's eastern flank. This is a meaningful risk given the recent Russian ballistic missile strikes on Kyiv and the Kremlin's repeated attempts to deter Western arms transfers.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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