Possible scenario
Aid Package Delivered
42% Chance
Germany follows through on Merz's Kyiv pledge, with procurement and transfers focused on equipment already in European inventories or contracted production lines. This is the base case because Berlin has already crossed several prior escalation thresholds on Ukraine aid, including tanks and Patriot transfers.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
Tickers
- +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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