Possible scenario
Hostile-State Confrontation
20% Chance
The centre becomes a vehicle for public attribution of Russian, Chinese or Iranian information operations. This could strengthen deterrence, but it also risks diplomatic retaliation, cyber probing and short-lived market caution.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Technology +0.2%
- Business Services +0.2%
- Telecommunications -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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