Possible scenario
Russian-linked operation
28% Chance
Polish and Slovenian investigators uncover evidence tying the incident to Russian intelligence or a proxy network. The timing after suspected sabotage incidents and a Russian drone landing near Poland’s border would make this a serious NATO security issue, though still below a direct military attack.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.