Possible scenario
Foreign Firms Retrench
28% Chance
Multinationals respond by reducing China-based expatriate roles, limiting travel by senior staff, and shifting regional functions to Singapore, Tokyo, Seoul, and Hong Kong. The legal formalization becomes a board-level risk item for banks, consultancies, law firms, and technology companies handling data or capital movement.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -1.1%
- Finance -1.0%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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