Controlled Exit Ban Enforcement

The State Council codifies exit bans but keeps implementation concentrated on people tied to capital-control violations, tax arrears, state-secrets probes, and sensitive financial investigations. This is the most likely path because Beijing wants deterrence without triggering a wholesale foreign-business exodus or a disorderly selloff in Chinese assets.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.