Possible scenario
Capital Flight Stress
20% Chance
Investors interpret the formalization as evidence that capital outflow pressure is becoming more acute. Beijing responds with tighter bank scrutiny, stronger yuan fixings, and more aggressive review of outbound remittances, producing a broader but still non-crisis risk-off reaction.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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