Possible scenario
Guarded Flow Normalization
45% Chance
Middle East crude shipments remain above 90% of pre-war levels as escorted convoys, alternative routing, and producer coordination keep cargoes moving. Sporadic threats continue, but markets treat the latest recovery as a partial removal of the Hormuz risk premium.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.9%
- Industrials +0.5%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.