Possible scenario
Fragile Security Corridor
25% Chance
Flows stay materially better than the mid-October disruption, but attacks, drone sightings, or mine scares prevent a full return to normal. Oil markets rebuild a moderate risk premium because the route is functional but clearly vulnerable.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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