Possible scenario
Diplomatic Maritime Deal
18% Chance
Regional mediation produces a tacit or formal arrangement that separates crude exports from the Israel-Iran conflict. The result would be a larger de-escalation than simple naval protection, lowering oil prices and volatility more decisively.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.7%
- Consumer Services +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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