Possible scenario
Vetting crisis deepens
20% Chance
Additional clips, social media posts, or local recordings emerge, turning the issue from a contained scandal into a wider vetting crisis. The most damaging path is if violent remarks trigger police referrals or force Reform to replace candidates close to filing deadlines.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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