Possible scenario
Rivals exploit scandal
30% Chance
Kemi Badenoch, Keir Starmer, and the Liberal Democrats use the ITV probe to argue that Reform UK is unfit for national office. The story reinforces Conservative efforts to stop right-wing voters from defecting and gives Labour a way to link Farage’s asylum pledges to extremism.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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