Possible scenario
Limited Military Clash
20% Chance
A direct but contained U.S.-Iran clash follows another attack or credible threat against commercial vessels. Both sides signal they do not want a wider war, but the immediate market reaction is a sharp geopolitical risk repricing.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +5.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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