Possible scenario
Brokered Partial Reopening
35% Chance
Iran accepts a face-saving diplomatic channel through Oman, Qatar and the EU, allowing limited escorted tanker traffic while keeping leverage over U.S. export restrictions. Markets treat this as a partial de-escalation, but risk premia remain because Tehran has not fully abandoned the blockade threat.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +2.0%
- Energy -2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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