Possible scenario
Rates Extend Deleveraging
29% Chance
The selloff continues if the 24-year high in Treasury yields keeps pressuring duration-sensitive and speculative assets. In this path, Bitcoin trades less like a scarce asset and more like a high-beta risk position during a rates shock.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.3%
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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