Possible scenario
Crypto Liquidity Stress
21% Chance
A less likely but material downside path is that the initial liquidation exposes thin liquidity in crypto perpetual futures and altcoin markets. Stress remains mostly crypto-native, but public crypto equities reprice sharply as volumes, collateral quality, and counterparty exposure come into focus.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.1%
- Technology -0.9%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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