Possible scenario
Democratic Momentum Holds
42% Chance
The record $833 million quarter becomes evidence that Democratic small-dollar donors remain highly engaged despite investigations and internal turmoil. The DNC, DSCC and DCCC use the surge to fund earlier ad reservations, field offices and legal-protection programs in key House and Senate races.
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare -0.3%
- Utilities +0.2%
- Energy -0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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