Possible scenario
Gray-Market Migration
20% Chance
Rather than disappearing, Russian and Belarusian crypto activity shifts toward P2P markets, OTC desks, stablecoins, and decentralized venues. This reduces the visibility of flows and creates new compliance challenges for wallet providers and stablecoin issuers.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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