Possible scenario
Limited Air-Defense Deal
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is a constrained package that adds some Patriot or SAMP/T capacity without fully meeting Kyiv's request. This fits the recent U.S. approval of a major air-defense sale and Trump's preference for NATO-funded weapons transfers rather than open-ended U.S. aid.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
- RTX+1.9%
- +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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