Possible scenario
Expanded Defense Surge
15% Chance
A larger-than-expected agreement is possible if recent Russian strikes on Ukraine's power network create urgency before winter. Such a package would likely combine U.S. Patriot hardware, NATO financing, interceptor replenishment, and European SAMP/T contributions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
Tickers
- +3.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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