Possible scenario
Conditional Delay
25% Chance
Trump may use the meeting to press European allies for greater financing and inventory contributions before any new Patriot transfer proceeds. This would be consistent with the July 2025 NATO weapons-sales arrangement and could delay systems even if the broader deal remains alive.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Tickers
- LMT-0.6%
- RTX-0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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